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Autumn 1936 Group A Season

28 games

Final

Champion

Spartak Moscow

17 points

Relegated

No relegation

Biggest Overachiever

Dinamo Tbilisi

8.98 points above expected

16 points · 7.02 expected points

Biggest Disappointment

Dynamo Kyiv

2.22 points above expected

12 points · 9.78 expected points

League Table

The final standings for the season. vsSim shows actual points minus the simulation's mean — positive means the team overachieved against the model, negative means they underperformed.

# Team GP W D L Pts GF GA GD SimPts vsSim
1 Spartak Moscow 7 4 2 1 17 19 10 +9 8.49 +8.51
2 Dynamo Moscow 7 3 3 1 16 21 12 +9 10.80 +5.20
3 Dinamo Tbilisi 7 3 3 1 16 14 9 +5 7.02 +8.98
4 Lokomotiv Moscow 7 4 0 3 15 18 14 +4 6.93 +8.07
5 Elektrosila Leningrad 7 3 0 4 13 13 18 -5 4.45 +8.55
6 Dynamo Kyiv 7 1 3 3 12 16 19 -3 9.78 +2.22
7 Dynamo Leningrad 7 1 3 3 12 7 15 -8 4.01 +7.99
8 CDKA Moscow 7 2 0 5 11 9 20 -11 4.52 +6.48

Top Overachievers & Disappointments

Teams that most beat — or most fell short of — their simulated point projections. A positive vsSim means the team accumulated more points than the model expected on average; a negative one means fewer.

Biggest Overachievers

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dinamo Tbilisi 16 7.02 +8.98
2 Elektrosila Leningrad 13 4.45 +8.55
3 Spartak Moscow 17 8.49 +8.51
4 Lokomotiv Moscow 15 6.93 +8.07
5 Dynamo Leningrad 12 4.01 +7.99

Biggest Disappointments

# Team Actual Sim vsSim
1 Dynamo Kyiv 12 9.78 +2.22
2 Dynamo Moscow 16 10.80 +5.20
3 CDKA Moscow 11 4.52 +6.48
4 Dynamo Leningrad 12 4.01 +7.99
5 Lokomotiv Moscow 15 6.93 +8.07

Top Streaks

Ranked by model unlikelihood — the product of pregame W/D/L probabilities over the games in each team's streak. A short streak by a poor team can outrank a longer one by a strong team since the poor team's per-game probabilities were lower going in. Unbeaten counts consecutive wins or ties; Winless counts consecutive losses or ties.

Most Unlikely Winning Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Lokomotiv Moscow 3 Sep 24 – Oct 16 1 in 97
2 Elektrosila Leningrad 2 Sep 14 – Oct 6 1 in 34
3 Dinamo Tbilisi 1 Sep 25 – Sep 25 1 in 4
4 Dynamo Leningrad 1 Oct 30 – Oct 30 1 in 3
5 Dynamo Moscow 2 Sep 5 – Sep 14 1 in 3

Most Unlikely Losing Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dynamo Kyiv 3 Sep 14 – Oct 6 1 in 149
2 Dynamo Moscow 1 Oct 12 – Oct 12 1 in 9
3 Dynamo Leningrad 3 Sep 7 – Sep 30 1 in 7
4 Dinamo Tbilisi 1 Oct 24 – Oct 24 1 in 6
5 CDKA Moscow 4 Oct 8 – Oct 30 1 in 5

Most Unlikely Unbeaten Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dynamo Leningrad 4 Oct 10 – Oct 30 1 in 66
2 Dinamo Tbilisi 5 Sep 7 – Oct 18 1 in 20
3 Lokomotiv Moscow 3 Sep 24 – Oct 16 1 in 10
4 Elektrosila Leningrad 2 Sep 14 – Oct 6 1 in 6
5 Spartak Moscow 5 Sep 30 – Oct 30 1 in 6

Most Unlikely Winless Streaks

# Team Games Dates Probability
1 Dynamo Kyiv 6 Sep 7 – Oct 18 1 in 180
2 Dynamo Moscow 3 Sep 29 – Oct 12 1 in 19
3 Dinamo Tbilisi 2 Oct 18 – Oct 24 1 in 6
4 Dynamo Leningrad 6 Sep 7 – Oct 26 1 in 3
5 Spartak Moscow 1 Sep 25 – Sep 25 50%

Position Race

Each team’s league position across the whole season. Colored teams are the season’s headline finishers — champion, promoted, and relegated; everyone else is gray as context.

Recent Form

Each team’s last 5 games, hottest first. Form shows the results (navy win, gray draw, red loss, newest on the right); the bars show Elo change over the window, points taken, points expected from the odds, and actual minus expected. Beside each team: current Elo and season points.

Team Elo Season Pts Form Elo Δ (5) Points (5) Expected (5) Actual − Exp
Spartak Moscow 1605 17 +12 13 9.8 +3.2
Dinamo Tbilisi 1515 16 +8 11 9.3 +1.7
Dynamo Moscow 1738 16 -6 10 12.3 -2.3
Lokomotiv Moscow 1484 15 +7 11 7.5 +3.5
Elektrosila Leningrad 1335 13 +2 9 5.2 +3.8
Dynamo Leningrad 1333 12 +4 10 4.5 +5.5
Dynamo Kyiv 1646 12 -17 9 11.7 -2.7
CDKA Moscow 1345 11 -10 7 4.3 +2.7

Head-to-Head

Each cell shows a team's record in that matchup (row vs column, formatted W-D-L) with the model's expected points on the line below. Navy-tinted cells mean the team beat the model's expectations by more than one point in that matchup; gold-tinted cells mean they fell short by the same margin.

Beat expectations Fell short Within expectations
Team CM DT DK DL DM EL LM SM
CDKA Moscow —
0-0-1
0.85
0-0-1
0.51
1-0-0
1.38
0-0-1
0.38
0-0-1
1.50
1-0-0
0.91
0-0-1
0.58
Dinamo Tbilisi
1-0-0
1.91
 —
0-1-0
0.78
0-1-0
2.05
0-1-0
0.62
0-0-1
2.02
1-0-0
1.46
1-0-0
0.99
Dynamo Kyiv
1-0-0
2.29
0-1-0
1.98
 —
0-1-0
2.34
0-0-1
1.08
0-0-1
2.34
0-0-1
2.05
0-1-0
1.54
Dynamo Leningrad
0-0-1
1.35
0-1-0
0.72
0-1-0
0.47
 —
0-1-0
0.34
1-0-0
1.32
0-0-1
0.89
0-0-1
0.56
Dynamo Moscow
1-0-0
2.45
0-1-0
2.16
1-0-0
1.66
0-1-0
2.50
 —
1-0-0
2.49
0-0-1
2.22
0-1-0
1.91
Elektrosila Leningrad
1-0-0
1.24
1-0-0
0.74
1-0-0
0.47
0-0-1
1.41
0-0-1
0.35
 —
0-0-1
0.83
0-0-1
0.58
Lokomotiv Moscow
0-0-1
1.84
0-0-1
1.27
1-0-0
0.71
1-0-0
1.86
1-0-0
0.56
1-0-0
1.92
 —
0-0-1
0.91
Spartak Moscow
1-0-0
2.20
0-0-1
1.75
0-1-0
1.19
1-0-0
2.22
0-1-0
0.84
1-0-0
2.21
1-0-0
1.84
 —

Points vs. Goals Scored, Allowed, and Differential

Points plotted against goals scored, allowed, and differential. Use the buttons to switch views; hover a team for exact values. The table gives each fit's R² and slope (the change in points per 10 goals).

Fit Metrics

R² Slope
Scored 0.58 +3.6
Allowed 0.83 -5.0
Differential 0.93 +2.8

Scoreline Distribution

Percentage of games ending with each combination of team-goals (rows) and opponent-goals (columns). The diagonal shows draws; cells below the diagonal are wins from the row team's perspective, cells above are losses. Marginal totals on the right and bottom show how often each goal count occurred regardless of opponent. Use the picker to switch between the league-wide view and any individual team.

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—3.57%1.79%1.79%3.57%1.79%12.50%
13.57%7.14%5.36%8.93%1.79%—26.79%
21.79%5.36%10.71%3.57%1.79%—23.21%
31.79%8.93%3.57%7.14%—1.79%23.21%
43.57%1.79%1.79%——1.79%8.93%
5+1.79%——1.79%1.79%—5.36%
Total12.50%26.79%23.21%23.21%8.93%5.36%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.09 2.09 +0.00
SD 1.46 1.46 2.17
CV 0.70 0.70 —
Max 6 6 +6
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 28

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0————14.29%14.29%28.57%
1———28.57%——28.57%
214.29%——14.29%——28.57%
3—14.29%————14.29%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%14.29%—42.86%14.29%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.29 2.86 -1.57
SD 1.11 1.95 2.94
CV 0.87 0.68 —
Max 3 6 +2
Min 0 0 -6

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
114.29%14.29%————28.57%
2—14.29%28.57%14.29%——57.14%
3———————
414.29%—————14.29%
5+———————
Total28.57%28.57%28.57%14.29%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.00 1.29 +0.71
SD 1.00 1.11 1.60
CV 0.50 0.87 —
Max 4 3 +4
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%————14.29%
1———————
2——28.57%—14.29%—42.86%
3—14.29%—14.29%——28.57%
4—————14.29%14.29%
5+———————
Total—28.57%28.57%14.29%14.29%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.29 2.71 -0.43
SD 1.25 1.80 1.40
CV 0.55 0.66 —
Max 4 6 +2
Min 0 1 -2

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0——14.29%14.29%14.29%—42.86%
1—14.29%————14.29%
2—14.29%28.57%———42.86%
3———————
4———————
5+———————
Total—28.57%42.86%14.29%14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.00 2.14 -1.14
SD 1.00 1.07 1.86
CV 1.00 0.50 —
Max 2 4 +1
Min 0 1 -4

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1—28.57%14.29%———42.86%
2———————
3—14.29%—14.29%——28.57%
4———————
5+14.29%———14.29%—28.57%
Total14.29%42.86%14.29%14.29%14.29%—100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 3.00 1.71 +1.29
SD 2.24 1.38 2.36
CV 0.75 0.81 —
Max 6 4 +6
Min 1 0 -1

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
114.29%—14.29%14.29%14.29%—57.14%
2———————
3——28.57%——14.29%42.86%
4———————
5+———————
Total14.29%—42.86%14.29%14.29%14.29%100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 1.86 2.57 -0.71
SD 1.07 1.62 1.70
CV 0.58 0.63 —
Max 3 5 +1
Min 1 0 -3

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0———————
1——14.29%28.57%——42.86%
2—14.29%————14.29%
3———————
414.29%—14.29%———28.57%
5+———14.29%——14.29%
Total14.29%14.29%28.57%42.86%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.57 2.00 +0.57
SD 1.72 1.15 2.30
CV 0.67 0.58 —
Max 5 3 +4
Min 1 0 -2

Games Played: 7

↓ Scored | Allowed →012345+Total
0—14.29%————14.29%
1———————
2———————
314.29%28.57%—28.57%——71.43%
4—14.29%————14.29%
5+———————
Total14.29%57.14%—28.57%——100%

Summary Statistics

Scored Allowed Difference
Mean 2.71 1.43 +1.29
SD 1.25 1.13 1.60
CV 0.46 0.79 —
Max 4 3 +3
Min 0 0 -1

Games Played: 7

Season Summary

Every team's regular-season finish compared against 100,000 simulations. Click any column header to sort. Luck is the team's actual points minus the sim's mean — positive means the team beat the model. Percentile is where the actual result fell in the team's sim distribution (e.g. 90% = the team did this well or better in only 10% of sims).

Team Elo Points Avg Luck Percentile Min 5th Q1 Median Q3 95th Max
Dynamo Moscow 1738 16 10.80 +5.20 22.0% 5 8 10 11 12 13 14
Dynamo Kyiv 1646 12 9.78 +2.22 3.0% 4 7 8 10 11 12 13
Spartak Moscow 1605 17 8.49 +8.51 79.0% 3 5 7 9 10 12 12
Dinamo Tbilisi 1515 16 7.02 +8.98 95.0% 3 4 6 7 8 9 12
Lokomotiv Moscow 1484 15 6.93 +8.07 76.0% 2 4 5 7 8 10 11
CDKA Moscow 1345 11 4.52 +6.48 53.0% 0 2 3 4 6 8 10
Elektrosila Leningrad 1335 13 4.45 +8.55 85.0% 0 1 3 4 6 8 10
Dynamo Leningrad 1333 12 4.01 +7.99 74.0% 0 1 2 4 6 7 10

Point Totals in Context

How did each team's actual results compare to their simulated points, Elo rating, average opponent Elo, and percentile within simulated outcomes? Use the buttons to switch between views. In each chart, dashed crosshairs at the league means split the plot into four quadrants: pastel green (team did well, model agreed), pastel red (team did poorly, model agreed), and pastel yellow (model and reality disagreed).

Home-Field Advantage Edge

The simulation applies the same home-field boost to every game across the league, so the per-game home win probabilities bake in the model's idea of HFA. For each team, we sum expected points at home and compare to actual home points, and the same on the road. The bar shows (home points above expected) minus (away points above expected). A tall positive bar means the team's home/road split exceeded what the model predicted — a real fortress effect. A tall negative bar means the reverse: they played worse at home or better on the road than expected.

Season Trends

How each metric evolved across the season - Elo rating, actual and projected points, title/promotion probability, and relegation probability - day by day.

Edges & Scoring

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Home Edge
Share of matches won by the home team minus the share won by the away team.
No Edge: under 16.5% * Slight Edge: 16.5% to 25% * Clear Edge: 25% to 33% * Strong Edge: 33% and up.
Elo Value
Number of Elo rating points one goal is worth. A team this many Elo points better than another is expected to win by one goal on a neutral field.
Scoring Tilt
Average home goals minus average away goals per match. The gold line is the home goals edge implied by the scoring value of an Elo point and the home-field Elo bonus.
Road-Tilted: under -0.2 * Neutral: -0.2 to 0.5 * Home-Tilted: 0.5 to 1.2 * Strong Home: 1.2 and up.
Home Edge
HomeDrawAway
-3.57%
No Edge
35.71%25.00%39.29%
Elo Value
Home Edge: -12.41 Elo pts.
225 Elo
0.004 goals per Elo point
0600
Scoring Tilt
Expected
+0.04 goals
Neutral
-2-0.06+2

Title Race

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Title-Race Openness
Effective number of teams with a live shot at finishing 1st, from the simulation. 1 means the favorite is a near-lock; larger means a wide-open race. Equal to 1 divided by the sum of squared title odds.
One-Team Race: under 3 * Top-Heavy: 3 to 4 * Open: 4 to 5 * Wide Open: 5 and up.
Champion Preseason Odds
Preseason probability that the eventual champion would finish 1st, from the simulation. The dot marks their rank across all teams, from longshot to favorite.
Preseason Favorite: 1st * Among the Favorites: 2nd * Middle of the Pack: 3rd to 4th * Longshot: 5th or lower.
Title Margin
Points-per-game gap between the champion and the runner-up. Shown per game so it reads the same across long and short seasons. The gold line is the winning margin the model expected, so a dot to the right means a more one-sided race than projected. A title won on goal difference shows 0.00.
Photo Finish: under 0.06 * Tight Race: 0.06 to 0.12 * Comfortable: 0.12 to 0.17 * Runaway: 0.17 and up.
Title-Race Openness
2.5
One-Team Race
13458
Champion Preseason Odds
14%
Spartak Moscow, 3rd of 8
LongshotFavorite
Title Margin
Expected
0.14/gm
Comfortable
00.240.5/gm

Simulation-Based Surprises

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Luck Spread
Standard deviation of the gap between each team's actual points and their simulated average points. The gold line is the spread the model expected from chance alone.
As Expected: under 1.59 * Some Luck: 1.59 to 2.39 * Lucky: 2.39 to 3.19 * Wild Swing: 3.19 and up.
Average Finish Error
Average gap between where each team was projected to finish and where they actually finished in the table.
Pinpoint: under 0.9 * Close: 0.9 to 1.35 * Off: 1.35 to 1.8 * Way Off: 1.8 and up.
Biggest Overachiever
The team that finished highest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the top team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Biggest Underachiever
The team that finished lowest inside its own range of simulated outcomes. The gold line is where the bottom team in a league of 8 typically lands.
Season Outliers
Number of teams that finished above the 95th or below the 5th percentile of their own simulated range. Even a well-calibrated model expects about 10% of teams in the extremes.
Minimal Outliers: under 8 * As Expected: 8 to 12.8 * Several Outliers: 12.8 to 17.6 * Many Outliers: 17.6 and up.
Luck Spread
Expected
2.15 points
Some Luck
01.995
Average Finish Error
Expected
1.75
Off
01.132.5
Biggest Overachiever
Expected 93.75%
95.00%
Dinamo Tbilisi
50100
Biggest Underachiever
Expected
3.00%
Dynamo Kyiv
06.25%50
Season Outliers
Expected
1 of 8
Minimal Outliers
00.88

Parity

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Gini Index
How evenly points were spread across the league. Lower means a tight, balanced table; higher means a few teams ran off with most of the points.
Balanced: under 0.13 * Even: 0.13 to 0.14 * Top-Heavy: 0.14 to 0.17 * Lopsided: 0.17 and up.
Noll-Scully
Take a league where every match is a coin flip and nobody is better than anybody. You would still get a table, with a leader and a bottom club, purely by luck, and you can work out how far apart that table would be. This is the real table measured against it. At 1.00 the season was no more spread out than pure chance; at 2.00 it was twice as spread out, which takes genuine differences in quality. Dividing by the luck figure is what makes seasons of different lengths comparable, because a short season spreads a table by luck alone far more than a long one does. Elo SD in the corner is the same question in rating points: how far apart the teams finished on the ratings.
Coin-Flip Parity: under 1.4 * Moderate Separation: 1.4 to 1.6 * Strong Separation: 1.6 to 1.8 * Wide Separation: 1.8 and up.
Interquartile Edge
Chance the team at the 75th percentile of Elo would beat the team at the 25th percentile on a neutral field. Higher means a bigger gap between the upper and lower half of the table.
Even: under 65% * Slight Edge: 65% to 67.5% * Clear Edge: 67.5% to 71% * Wide Edge: 71% and up.
Best vs. Worst
Chance the top-rated team would beat the bottom-rated team on a neutral field. The gold line is how large that gap tends to be in a league of this size; a dot to the right flags an unusually dominant or unusually weak team.
Even: under 85.5% * Clear Edge: 85.5% to 89% * Strong Edge: 89% to 92.5% * Dominant: 92.5% and up.
Close Games
Share of matches decided by 1 goal or fewer, draws included. The gold line is how many close games the matchups and the scoring value of an Elo point predict.
Few: under 57.5% * Some Drama: 57.5% to 65.5% * Frequent: 65.5% to 69.5% * Very Frequent: 69.5% and up.
Blowouts
Share of matches decided by 3 goals or more. The gold line is how many routs the matchups and the scoring model predict.
Rare: under 11.5% * Occasional: 11.5% to 14% * Frequent: 14% to 20% * Very Frequent: 20% and up.
Gini Index
0.08
Balanced
00.130.5
Noll-Scully
Elo SD: 155.27
0.65
Coin-Flip Parity
0.91.41.61.82.5
Interquartile Edge
83%
Wide Edge
50%65%71%100%
Best vs. Worst
Baseline 94%
91%
Strong Edge
50%100%
Close Games
Expected
50%
Few
0%51%100%
Blowouts
Expected
18%
Frequent
0%25%100%

Predictability

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Brier Score
How close the pregame probabilities landed to the actual result, averaged over the season. Confident, correct calls are rewarded most; confident misses are punished most. Lower is better; since draws are possible, a score under 0.66 beats guessing the base rate.
Highly Predictable: under 0.56 * Predictable: 0.56 to 0.62 * Hard to Predict: 0.62 to 0.66 * Coin-Flip: 0.66 and up.
Matchup Imbalance
How lopsided the matchups were on paper, averaging the gap between the two win probabilities over their sum. 0 means every match was a toss-up; 1 means every match was a heavy favorite against a big underdog.
Very Even: under 0.42 * Slight Separation: 0.42 to 0.48 * Notable Separation: 0.48 to 0.54 * Lopsided: 0.54 and up.
Strangeness
How wild the final table was versus what the model expected. A value of 1 means teams landed about one standard deviation from their projections on average. Above 1 is a stranger season; below 1 hugged the projections.
Very Predictable: under 0.8 * As Expected: 0.8 to 1.1 * Wilder Than Modeled: 1.1 to 1.4 * Chaotic: 1.4 and up.
Repeatability
How closely the final table order matched the preseason Elo order, by Spearman rank correlation. Higher means last season's ratings strongly predicted this season's finish. Shows N/A for an inaugural season.
Weak Carryover: under 0.48 * Some Carryover: 0.48 to 0.58 * Strong Carryover: 0.58 to 0.65 * Near-Lock: 0.65 and up.
Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won. The gold line is how often the model expected underdogs to win; a dot to the right means upsets ran hotter than expected.
Chalky: under 19% * As Expected: 19% to 21% * Upset-Prone: 21% to 23.5% * Very Upset-Prone: 23.5% and up.
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Share of matches the underdog won, counting only games with a clear favorite (at least 60% likely to win once a draw is set aside). The gold line is how often the model expected these favorites to slip.
Solid Favorites: under 16% * As Expected: 16% to 18.5% * Shaky Favorites: 18.5% to 22% * Very Shaky: 22% and up.
Brier Score
Expected
0.67
Coin-Flip
00.552
Matchup Imbalance
0.51
Notable Separation
00.420.5
Strangeness
Expected
1.26
Wilder Than Modeled
01.002
Repeatability
0.48
Some Carryover
00.480.651
Upset Rate
Expected
29%
Very Upset-Prone
0%19%50%
Clear Favorite Upset Rate
Expected
26%
Very Shaky
0%15%50%

Calibration

How these are measured

The navy dot is the actual value, the gold line and key are the model's reference where one applies, and the slate ticks are the cutoffs between read labels listed under each metric.

Probability calibration
An all-in-one chi-square test of the model's probabilities. Matches are grouped by how confident the model was, and within each group the predicted and actual counts of home wins, draws, and away wins are compared. The p-value is plotted; above 0.05 means well-calibrated.
Miscalibrated: under 0.05 * Borderline: 0.05 to 0.1 * Well Calibrated: 0.1 to 0.5 * Excellent: 0.5 and up.
Calibration slope
Checks whether the spread of the probabilities is right. Each probability is turned into log-odds and a line is fit predicting the actual results. A slope of 1.00 is perfect; below 1 is overconfidence (favorites lost more than their odds implied); above 1 is under-confidence.
Overconfident: under 0.85 * Calibrated: 0.85 to 1.15 * Underconfident: 1.15 to 1.3 * Very Underconfident: 1.3 and up.
Calibration error (ECE)
The average gap between the model's stated chances and how often the predicted result actually happened. Smaller is better. The gold line is the noise ceiling, the error luck alone can produce even with perfect probabilities; below it, the model's error is no larger than chance.
Well Within Noise: under 0.28 * Near Noise Ceiling: 0.28 to 0.41 * Above Noise: 0.41 to 0.55 * Well Above Noise: 0.55 and up.
Probability calibration
0.19
Well Calibrated
0.010.050.10.51
Calibration slope
Ideal
0.51
Overconfident
0.3629451.001.63706
Calibration error (ECE)
Noise ceiling
0.209
Well Within Noise
00.2770.8

Final Table Odds

Each cell is the probability — across 100,000 simulations — that the team (row) finished at that position (column). Rows are sorted by actual finish (champion at top, bottom of the table at the bottom).

Team12345678
Spartak Moscow14.00%31.00%17.00%18.00%8.00%6.00%5.00%1.00%
Dynamo Moscow56.00%25.00%11.00%5.00%3.00%———
Dinamo Tbilisi2.00%4.00%27.00%23.00%24.00%12.00%5.00%3.00%
Lokomotiv Moscow2.00%6.00%18.00%26.00%18.00%19.00%7.00%4.00%
Elektrosila Leningrad—1.00%4.00%6.00%14.00%28.00%24.00%23.00%
Dynamo Kyiv26.00%32.00%17.00%15.00%7.00%1.00%2.00%—
Dynamo Leningrad——3.00%5.00%9.00%18.00%23.00%42.00%
CDKA Moscow—1.00%3.00%2.00%17.00%16.00%34.00%27.00%

Points Required Per Position

The empirical CDF of simulated point totals per finishing position. Each curve shows, for one position (1st, 2nd, ..., last), the spread of point totals teams accumulated across simulations. Reading the curve at the 50% mark gives the median points typically needed to finish at that position. Steep curves mean the position is tightly clustered around a particular point range; shallow curves mean the position came with a wide variety of point totals.

Next-Season Status

Across 100,000 regular-season simulations, the probability of each team's next-season status. Columns appear in best-to-worst outcome order: promotion-positive on the left, relegation-positive on the right. Cells with darker shading indicate higher likelihood.

Team Same level Direct relegation
Dynamo Kyiv 100% —
Dynamo Moscow 100% —
Spartak Moscow 99.00% 1.00%
Dinamo Tbilisi 97.00% 3.00%
Lokomotiv Moscow 96.00% 4.00%
Elektrosila Leningrad 77.00% 23.00%
CDKA Moscow 73.00% 27.00%
Dynamo Leningrad 58.00% 42.00%

Overall Game Log

Summary of every completed game this season. Sort any column by clicking its header.

Date Opponent ScoreExcitement Pre Elo Opp Elo Win % Tie % Loss %Proj. Margin Elo Δ Points
1936-09-05 Dynamo Moscow L 1-341.6 1330 1738 6.15% 16.11% 77.73%-1.86 -1.3 0
1936-09-05 @ Elektrosila Leningrad W 3-141.6 1738 1330 77.73% 16.11% 6.15%+1.86 +1.3 3
1936-09-05 Lokomotiv Moscow W 3-149.1 1594 1472 52.78% 25.27% 21.95%+0.49 +4.8 3
1936-09-05 @ Spartak Moscow L 1-349.1 1472 1594 21.95% 25.27% 52.78%-0.49 -4.8 0
1936-09-07 Dynamo Leningrad W 2-038.5 1350 1347 37.20% 26.51% 36.30%-0.04 +8.4 3
1936-09-07 @ CDKA Moscow L 0-238.5 1347 1350 36.30% 26.51% 37.20%+0.04 -8.3 0
1936-09-07 Dynamo Kyiv D 2-270.5 1500 1668 17.85% 24.21% 57.94%-0.80 +0.8 2
1936-09-07 @ Dinamo Tbilisi D 2-270.5 1668 1500 57.94% 24.21% 17.85%+0.80 -0.8 2
1936-09-11 Dynamo Leningrad W 4-032.0 1467 1339 53.53% 25.14% 21.33%+0.51 +10.3 3
1936-09-11 @ Lokomotiv Moscow L 0-432.0 1339 1467 21.33% 25.14% 53.53%-0.51 -10.3 0
1936-09-14 Dynamo Kyiv W 6-467.1 1739 1668 46.56% 26.07% 27.36%+0.26 +4.8 6
1936-09-14 @ Dynamo Moscow L 4-667.1 1668 1739 27.36% 26.07% 46.56%-0.26 -4.8 2
1936-09-14 CDKA Moscow W 3-252.2 1329 1359 32.53% 26.43% 41.04%-0.19 +4.3 3
1936-09-14 @ Elektrosila Leningrad L 2-352.2 1359 1329 41.04% 26.43% 32.53%+0.19 -4.3 3
1936-09-19 CDKA Moscow L 1-350.4 1478 1354 52.93% 25.24% 21.82%+0.49 -9.8 3
1936-09-19 @ Lokomotiv Moscow W 3-150.4 1354 1478 21.82% 25.24% 52.93%-0.49 +9.8 6
1936-09-24 Lokomotiv Moscow L 2-467.1 1663 1468 60.66% 23.49% 15.85%+0.81 -9.9 2
1936-09-24 @ Dynamo Kyiv W 4-267.1 1468 1663 15.85% 23.49% 60.66%-0.81 +9.8 6
1936-09-25 Dinamo Tbilisi L 0-157.6 1599 1501 49.93% 25.70% 24.37%+0.38 -5.7 3
1936-09-25 @ Spartak Moscow W 1-057.6 1501 1599 24.37% 25.70% 49.93%-0.38 +5.7 5
1936-09-29 Dinamo Tbilisi D 1-168.2 1744 1506 64.67% 22.20% 13.14%+1.00 -1.4 8
1936-09-29 @ Dynamo Moscow D 1-168.2 1506 1744 13.14% 22.20% 64.67%-1.00 +1.4 7
1936-09-30 Spartak Moscow L 0-332.3 1329 1593 11.65% 21.29% 67.06%-1.23 -4.4 0
1936-09-30 @ Dynamo Leningrad W 3-032.3 1593 1329 67.06% 21.29% 11.65%+1.23 +4.4 6
1936-10-06 Elektrosila Leningrad L 0-158.1 1653 1333 71.56% 19.33% 9.11%+1.37 -7.7 2
1936-10-06 @ Dynamo Kyiv W 1-058.1 1333 1653 9.11% 19.33% 71.56%-1.37 +7.7 6
1936-10-06 Spartak Moscow D 3-378.2 1742 1598 55.40% 24.78% 19.82%+0.59 -0.6 10
1936-10-06 @ Dynamo Moscow D 3-378.2 1598 1742 19.82% 24.78% 55.40%-0.59 +0.6 8
1936-10-08 CDKA Moscow W 4-033.2 1508 1364 55.26% 24.81% 19.93%+0.58 +9.7 10
1936-10-08 @ Dinamo Tbilisi L 0-433.2 1364 1508 19.93% 24.81% 55.26%-0.58 -9.7 6
1936-10-10 Dynamo Kyiv D 2-265.3 1324 1645 9.07% 19.30% 71.63%-1.48 +1.2 2
1936-10-10 @ Dynamo Leningrad D 2-265.3 1645 1324 71.63% 19.30% 9.07%+1.48 -1.2 4
1936-10-10 Elektrosila Leningrad W 4-138.1 1598 1341 66.46% 21.53% 12.01%+1.09 +3.8 11
1936-10-10 @ Spartak Moscow L 1-438.1 1341 1598 12.01% 21.53% 66.46%-1.09 -3.8 6
1936-10-12 Lokomotiv Moscow L 1-268.5 1742 1478 67.03% 21.31% 11.67%+1.12 -6.9 10
1936-10-12 @ Dynamo Moscow W 2-168.5 1478 1742 11.67% 21.31% 67.03%-1.12 +6.9 9
1936-10-16 Elektrosila Leningrad W 5-348.0 1485 1337 55.73% 24.71% 19.55%+0.60 +3.7 12
1936-10-16 @ Lokomotiv Moscow L 3-548.0 1337 1485 19.55% 24.71% 55.73%-0.60 -3.7 6
1936-10-17 Dynamo Moscow L 0-636.2 1355 1735 6.97% 17.12% 75.91%-1.74 -4.7 6
1936-10-17 @ CDKA Moscow W 6-036.2 1735 1355 75.91% 17.12% 6.97%+1.74 +4.7 13
1936-10-18 Dynamo Leningrad D 2-259.9 1518 1326 60.37% 23.57% 16.06%+0.80 -0.9 12
1936-10-18 @ Dinamo Tbilisi D 2-259.9 1326 1518 16.06% 23.57% 60.37%-0.80 +0.9 4
1936-10-18 Dynamo Kyiv D 3-376.4 1602 1644 30.98% 26.36% 42.66%-0.24 +0.2 13
1936-10-18 @ Spartak Moscow D 3-376.4 1644 1602 42.66% 26.36% 30.98%+0.24 -0.2 6
1936-10-24 Elektrosila Leningrad L 2-360.1 1517 1333 59.52% 23.81% 16.68%+0.76 -5.9 12
1936-10-24 @ Dinamo Tbilisi W 3-260.1 1333 1517 16.68% 23.81% 59.52%-0.76 +5.9 9
1936-10-24 CDKA Moscow W 3-141.4 1644 1350 69.51% 20.27% 10.22%+1.25 +2.3 9
1936-10-24 @ Dynamo Kyiv L 1-341.4 1350 1644 10.22% 20.27% 69.51%-1.25 -2.3 6
1936-10-26 Dynamo Moscow D 1-165.2 1326 1740 6.01% 15.92% 78.07%-1.89 +1.9 6
1936-10-26 @ Dynamo Leningrad D 1-165.2 1740 1326 78.07% 15.92% 6.01%+1.89 -1.9 15
1936-10-30 Spartak Moscow L 1-340.8 1348 1602 12.17% 21.63% 66.20%-1.18 -2.7 6
1936-10-30 @ CDKA Moscow W 3-140.8 1602 1348 66.20% 21.63% 12.17%+1.18 +2.7 16
1936-10-30 Lokomotiv Moscow W 2-153.2 1511 1488 39.94% 26.46% 33.60%+0.04 +3.9 15
1936-10-30 @ Dinamo Tbilisi L 1-253.2 1488 1511 33.60% 26.46% 39.94%-0.04 -3.9 12
1936-10-30 Dynamo Leningrad L 1-246.1 1339 1328 38.28% 26.50% 35.22%-0.01 -4.3 9
1936-10-30 @ Elektrosila Leningrad W 2-146.1 1328 1339 35.22% 26.50% 38.28%+0.01 +4.4 9

Biggest Upsets

The 25 games where the underdog won despite the lowest pregame win probability. Underdog Win % is the winner's pregame chance of winning the game (lower = bigger upset). @ before a team name indicates the away side. An asterisk (*) after the date marks a playoff game.

# Date Underdog Win % Winning Team Losing Team
Team Elo Score Team Elo Score
1 1936-10-06 9.11% Elektrosila Leningrad 1333 1 @ Dynamo Kyiv 1653 0
2 1936-10-12 11.67% Lokomotiv Moscow 1478 2 @ Dynamo Moscow 1742 1
3 1936-09-24 15.85% Lokomotiv Moscow 1468 4 @ Dynamo Kyiv 1663 2
4 1936-10-24 16.68% Elektrosila Leningrad 1333 3 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 1517 2
5 1936-09-19 21.82% CDKA Moscow 1354 3 @ Lokomotiv Moscow 1478 1
6 1936-09-25 24.37% Dinamo Tbilisi 1501 1 @ Spartak Moscow 1599 0
7 1936-09-14 32.53% @ Elektrosila Leningrad 1329 3 CDKA Moscow 1359 2
8 1936-10-30 35.22% Dynamo Leningrad 1328 2 @ Elektrosila Leningrad 1339 1

Biggest Elo Changes

The 25 games that resulted in the largest shift in Elo rating.

# Date Elo Δ Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1936-09-11 10.34 @ Lokomotiv Moscow 4 1467 53.53% Dynamo Leningrad 0 1339 21.33% 25.14%
2 1936-09-24 9.85 Lokomotiv Moscow 4 1468 15.85% @ Dynamo Kyiv 2 1663 60.66% 23.49%
3 1936-09-19 9.78 CDKA Moscow 3 1354 21.82% @ Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1478 52.93% 25.24%
4 1936-10-08 9.74 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 4 1508 55.26% CDKA Moscow 0 1364 19.93% 24.81%
5 1936-09-07 8.36 @ CDKA Moscow 2 1350 37.20% Dynamo Leningrad 0 1347 36.30% 26.51%
6 1936-10-06 7.72 Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1333 9.11% @ Dynamo Kyiv 0 1653 71.56% 19.33%
7 1936-10-12 6.92 Lokomotiv Moscow 2 1478 11.67% @ Dynamo Moscow 1 1742 67.03% 21.31%
8 1936-10-24 5.94 Elektrosila Leningrad 3 1333 16.68% @ Dinamo Tbilisi 2 1517 59.52% 23.81%
9 1936-09-25 5.70 Dinamo Tbilisi 1 1501 24.37% @ Spartak Moscow 0 1599 49.93% 25.70%
10 1936-09-05 4.84 @ Spartak Moscow 3 1594 52.78% Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1472 21.95% 25.27%
11 1936-09-14 4.75 @ Dynamo Moscow 6 1739 46.56% Dynamo Kyiv 4 1668 27.36% 26.07%
12 1936-10-17 4.72 Dynamo Moscow 6 1735 75.91% @ CDKA Moscow 0 1355 6.97% 17.12%
13 1936-09-30 4.39 Spartak Moscow 3 1593 67.06% @ Dynamo Leningrad 0 1329 11.65% 21.29%
14 1936-10-30 4.35 Dynamo Leningrad 2 1328 35.22% @ Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1339 38.28% 26.50%
15 1936-09-14 4.35 @ Elektrosila Leningrad 3 1329 32.53% CDKA Moscow 2 1359 41.04% 26.43%
16 1936-10-30 3.94 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 2 1511 39.94% Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1488 33.60% 26.46%
17 1936-10-10 3.82 @ Spartak Moscow 4 1598 66.46% Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1341 12.01% 21.53%
18 1936-10-16 3.69 @ Lokomotiv Moscow 5 1485 55.73% Elektrosila Leningrad 3 1337 19.55% 24.71%
19 1936-10-30 2.74 Spartak Moscow 3 1602 66.20% @ CDKA Moscow 1 1348 12.17% 21.63%
20 1936-10-24 2.27 @ Dynamo Kyiv 3 1644 69.51% CDKA Moscow 1 1350 10.22% 20.27%
21 1936-10-26 1.92 Dynamo Moscow 1 1740 78.07% @ Dynamo Leningrad 1 1326 6.01% 15.92%
22 1936-09-29 1.37 @ Dynamo Moscow 1 1744 64.67% Dinamo Tbilisi 1 1506 13.14% 22.20%
23 1936-09-05 1.27 Dynamo Moscow 3 1738 77.73% @ Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1330 6.15% 16.11%
24 1936-10-10 1.25 @ Dynamo Leningrad 2 1324 9.07% Dynamo Kyiv 2 1645 71.63% 19.30%
25 1936-10-18 0.87 Dynamo Leningrad 2 1326 16.06% @ Dinamo Tbilisi 2 1518 60.37% 23.57%

Most & Least Exciting Games

The season’s games ranked by excitement rating (0–100) — a blend of closeness, upset, team quality, and scoring. An asterisk (*) after the date indicates a playoff game.

# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1936-10-06 78.2 @ Dynamo Moscow 3 1742 55.40% Spartak Moscow 3 1598 19.82% 24.78%
2 1936-10-18 76.4 @ Spartak Moscow 3 1602 30.98% Dynamo Kyiv 3 1644 42.66% 26.36%
3 1936-09-07 70.5 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 2 1500 17.85% Dynamo Kyiv 2 1668 57.94% 24.21%
4 1936-10-12 68.5 Lokomotiv Moscow 2 1478 11.67% @ Dynamo Moscow 1 1742 67.03% 21.31%
5 1936-09-29 68.2 @ Dynamo Moscow 1 1744 64.67% Dinamo Tbilisi 1 1506 13.14% 22.20%
6 1936-09-14 67.1 @ Dynamo Moscow 6 1739 46.56% Dynamo Kyiv 4 1668 27.36% 26.07%
7 1936-09-24 67.1 Lokomotiv Moscow 4 1468 15.85% @ Dynamo Kyiv 2 1663 60.66% 23.49%
8 1936-10-10 65.3 @ Dynamo Leningrad 2 1324 9.07% Dynamo Kyiv 2 1645 71.63% 19.30%
9 1936-10-26 65.2 @ Dynamo Leningrad 1 1326 6.01% Dynamo Moscow 1 1740 78.07% 15.92%
10 1936-10-24 60.1 Elektrosila Leningrad 3 1333 16.68% @ Dinamo Tbilisi 2 1517 59.52% 23.81%
11 1936-10-18 59.9 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 2 1518 60.37% Dynamo Leningrad 2 1326 16.06% 23.57%
12 1936-10-06 58.1 Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1333 9.11% @ Dynamo Kyiv 0 1653 71.56% 19.33%
13 1936-09-25 57.6 Dinamo Tbilisi 1 1501 24.37% @ Spartak Moscow 0 1599 49.93% 25.70%
14 1936-10-30 53.2 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 2 1511 39.94% Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1488 33.60% 26.46%
15 1936-09-14 52.2 @ Elektrosila Leningrad 3 1329 32.53% CDKA Moscow 2 1359 41.04% 26.43%
16 1936-09-19 50.4 CDKA Moscow 3 1354 21.82% @ Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1478 52.93% 25.24%
17 1936-09-05 49.1 @ Spartak Moscow 3 1594 52.78% Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1472 21.95% 25.27%
18 1936-10-16 48.0 @ Lokomotiv Moscow 5 1485 55.73% Elektrosila Leningrad 3 1337 19.55% 24.71%
19 1936-10-30 46.1 Dynamo Leningrad 2 1328 35.22% @ Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1339 38.28% 26.50%
20 1936-09-05 41.6 Dynamo Moscow 3 1738 77.73% @ Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1330 6.15% 16.11%
21 1936-10-24 41.4 @ Dynamo Kyiv 3 1644 69.51% CDKA Moscow 1 1350 10.22% 20.27%
22 1936-10-30 40.8 Spartak Moscow 3 1602 66.20% @ CDKA Moscow 1 1348 12.17% 21.63%
23 1936-09-07 38.5 @ CDKA Moscow 2 1350 37.20% Dynamo Leningrad 0 1347 36.30% 26.51%
24 1936-10-10 38.1 @ Spartak Moscow 4 1598 66.46% Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1341 12.01% 21.53%
25 1936-10-17 36.2 Dynamo Moscow 6 1735 75.91% @ CDKA Moscow 0 1355 6.97% 17.12%
# Date Excitement Winning Team Losing Team Tie %
Team Score Elo Win % Team Score Elo Win %
1 1936-09-11 32.0 @ Lokomotiv Moscow 4 1467 53.53% Dynamo Leningrad 0 1339 21.33% 25.14%
2 1936-09-30 32.3 Spartak Moscow 3 1593 67.06% @ Dynamo Leningrad 0 1329 11.65% 21.29%
3 1936-10-08 33.2 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 4 1508 55.26% CDKA Moscow 0 1364 19.93% 24.81%
4 1936-10-17 36.2 Dynamo Moscow 6 1735 75.91% @ CDKA Moscow 0 1355 6.97% 17.12%
5 1936-10-10 38.1 @ Spartak Moscow 4 1598 66.46% Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1341 12.01% 21.53%
6 1936-09-07 38.5 @ CDKA Moscow 2 1350 37.20% Dynamo Leningrad 0 1347 36.30% 26.51%
7 1936-10-30 40.8 Spartak Moscow 3 1602 66.20% @ CDKA Moscow 1 1348 12.17% 21.63%
8 1936-10-24 41.4 @ Dynamo Kyiv 3 1644 69.51% CDKA Moscow 1 1350 10.22% 20.27%
9 1936-09-05 41.6 Dynamo Moscow 3 1738 77.73% @ Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1330 6.15% 16.11%
10 1936-10-30 46.1 Dynamo Leningrad 2 1328 35.22% @ Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1339 38.28% 26.50%
11 1936-10-16 48.0 @ Lokomotiv Moscow 5 1485 55.73% Elektrosila Leningrad 3 1337 19.55% 24.71%
12 1936-09-05 49.1 @ Spartak Moscow 3 1594 52.78% Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1472 21.95% 25.27%
13 1936-09-19 50.4 CDKA Moscow 3 1354 21.82% @ Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1478 52.93% 25.24%
14 1936-09-14 52.2 @ Elektrosila Leningrad 3 1329 32.53% CDKA Moscow 2 1359 41.04% 26.43%
15 1936-10-30 53.2 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 2 1511 39.94% Lokomotiv Moscow 1 1488 33.60% 26.46%
16 1936-09-25 57.6 Dinamo Tbilisi 1 1501 24.37% @ Spartak Moscow 0 1599 49.93% 25.70%
17 1936-10-06 58.1 Elektrosila Leningrad 1 1333 9.11% @ Dynamo Kyiv 0 1653 71.56% 19.33%
18 1936-10-18 59.9 @ Dinamo Tbilisi 2 1518 60.37% Dynamo Leningrad 2 1326 16.06% 23.57%
19 1936-10-24 60.1 Elektrosila Leningrad 3 1333 16.68% @ Dinamo Tbilisi 2 1517 59.52% 23.81%
20 1936-10-26 65.2 @ Dynamo Leningrad 1 1326 6.01% Dynamo Moscow 1 1740 78.07% 15.92%
21 1936-10-10 65.3 @ Dynamo Leningrad 2 1324 9.07% Dynamo Kyiv 2 1645 71.63% 19.30%
22 1936-09-14 67.1 @ Dynamo Moscow 6 1739 46.56% Dynamo Kyiv 4 1668 27.36% 26.07%
23 1936-09-24 67.1 Lokomotiv Moscow 4 1468 15.85% @ Dynamo Kyiv 2 1663 60.66% 23.49%
24 1936-09-29 68.2 @ Dynamo Moscow 1 1744 64.67% Dinamo Tbilisi 1 1506 13.14% 22.20%
25 1936-10-12 68.5 Lokomotiv Moscow 2 1478 11.67% @ Dynamo Moscow 1 1742 67.03% 21.31%